Introduction to Monitoring Probability Strategy

[greenbets]

[FONT="arial" ]The basic concept[/FONT][/COLOR][COLOR=#222222][FONT="arial" ] is quite simple, succinctly explained, the longer an outcome does not happen, the closer is to occur.[/FONT][/COLOR]
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Explanation of the basics of the system with a practical example[/FONT]
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Ideally speaking in a toss coin the probability of getting heads or tails is 50%, this is what in the method we call Initial Probability (IP), if we make a roll and get heads, what is more likely to come out on second roll? And in the third, fourth or fifth roll? if we roll the coin five times and has appeared five times the heads, then we say that the probability of tails have a DELAY of five consecutive times.[/FONT]

[FONT="arial" ]You may think that every time you make a roll there is no connection between them, but what if I tell you that's not true, it is not possible that with that initial probability (IP) happens more than 12 times in a row the same choice?[/FONT]
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EXPLANATION OF THE MONITORING PROBABILITY (MP)[/FONT]
[FONT="arial" ]Let's see how it works from an initial probability (IP) 50%:
In the first roll the probability is the same as the initial probability, that is, 50%
In the second, applying the formula for the calculation of the MP would be 75%
87.5 for the third
93.75 in the fourth
96.87 ...
98.43 ...
99.21 ...
When it exceeds 99.50 it gets interesting, from this point is when we would enter to bet
99.60
99.80
99.90
99.95
99.97
99.98
99.99 At this point the actual probability of success is situated in 97%[/FONT]
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[/FONT][FONT="arial" ]In short, there are three basic concepts[/FONT]
[FONT="arial" ][/FONT][FONT="arial" ]1-IP, pure chance that a result occur, for example Chelsea wins 55 percent of Matches[/FONT]
[FONT="arial" ]2-DELAY, number of consecutives delays that a result is not happening [/FONT]
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[FONT="arial" ]3-MP monitoring probability, numerical relationship between IP and DELAY[/FONT]
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[FONT="arial" ]But how you can apply this system to sports betting? Surely you be thinking that in football there are many others factors that do not correspond to pure chance, then see real data from your favorite teams:[/FONT]
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  [*] Chelsea wins, we see that IP is 55%, see what has been the historical high of Manchester City has been without winning (DELAY): 7 times
  [*] Another example, over 2.5 in Chelsea matches, their IP is 58%, the maximum number of consecutives times that has not happened is 6
  [*] Manchester City score exactly 1 goal, IP is 25%, the maximum number of consecutives times that has not happened is 21
  [*]Leicester score at least one goal, IP 81%, maximum number of consecutives times that has not happened 5[/FONT]

[FONT="arial" ][/FONT] [FONT="arial" ]As you can see there is a direct relationship between the initial probability (IP) and the maximum number of DELAYS that can reach, so we can get to play at the right time, knowing that the greater the MP the nearer this one result is to occur.[/FONT]
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I opened a new forum post in which I will put monitorings weekly, so you can judge for yourself the validity of the system

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[greenbets]

Challange: Monitoring Probability Strategy

In this post I will put picks to demonstrate the validity of the system:

In this post I will put picks to demonstrate the validity of the system:

This time we have a team of the Premier, Southampton, has had a run of six consecutive games in which their rivals have not scored a goal, with an IP 63.60% and 6 DELAYS, the MP is located in 99.91. Quite high so it has to happen quickly.

PICK: their opponents score at least one goal
next opponents are Chelsea, Bournemouth and Sunderland

On this time Arsenal, the premier team carrying two consecutive games without scoring, with very high IP, 83.40% and 2 DELAYS, his MP is located in 99.54. the odds is not the best in the world but sure will occur at most in the next two games, for these cases with such low odds it is interesting to play live betting
PICK: Arsenal score at least one goal

Another pick for this week is Aston Villa, 6 consecutives times NG, his IP is 54.70. MP is located on 99,61. this time his odds will be close to 2 or higher
PICK: Both teams will score (GG)

 

[MAJORK]

Welcome Greenbets! Interesting write up! I will definitely be following your testing results.. Bol with all your plays!

 

[indiana]

G/bets............welcome to the RX forum, sure you will enjoy...........many good cappers here...............good luck with your system..........indy

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

this seems like gamblers fallacy 101 (team is due for a win/loss) here that can bury you if not done correctly. if you took Chelsea for consecutive games early in the season you'd be in a huge hole.

good luck my friend... and welcome to the board

 

[greenbets]

All green at first time! ;-)
tomorrow I will post new monitoring picks and more information about how the system works
POST SCRIPT: Southampton's opponent (Chelsea) scored at minute 75, so if you played live betting you would have quite high odds

 

[greenbets]

thank you all for your wellcome

 

[greenbets]

I almost forgot, here is the link to the challange where you can see the monitoring picks: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1047086

 

[greenbets]

MORE GOALS SUNDERLAND'S OPPONENT: DRAW
SUNDERLAND'S OPPONENT SCOREs SAME NUMBER OF GOAL IN BOTH HALVES
IP
43,66
Delay
14
MP
99,98
HISTORIC HIGH
14

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We keep adding monitorings, this time the MP is very high. Nevertheless, due to its IP could be extended two or three times, if you want to play it plan your bankroll.

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UNDER 2,5 HT2​

​

IP​

87,61​

Delay​

2​

MP​

99,81​

HISTORIC HIGH​

2​

stoke city. Under 2,5 in second half, goals of both teams
This is of those that fulfill at first time, obviosly you can only play it in the live, waiting until the odds increases
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I've posted more info about how the system works, in my blog you can find more info and tools

 

[greenbets]

How the MPS works?

The key is the relationship between any probability and the number of arrears/delays that has not happened (MP). In any game of chance (including life), Normal is usually equilibrium, when that balance is broken we call it streak statistics, usually the higher is the initial probability of an event, the faster the streak breaks and everything returns to normality.

The system is able to relate the initial probability of something with the number of times that takes without occur, achieving a useful approximation to determine the moment/time when the streak is going to broke

How far do you want to go?

As I mentioned in the previous article there is a relationship between the initial probability and the maximum number that can reach a statistical streak, You can find a MP calculator in my blog, so you can see how many times can be extended in time a streak according to its initial probability until reach MP 99.99
As you see the higher IP, the faster streak is broken, the method works well from an IP at least 25-30%, lower than it takes too long until we reach MP 99.99 always starting the monitoring when MP is bigger than 99,50, although it is true that the odds will be higher, perhaps it may be worth playing 20% as minimun sometimes...
For higher IP odds are lower, but we are confident it will quickly fulfilled, these can be exploited playing ‘live betting’ waiting until they rise.

…Soon more information about how to make the most of the strategy…

 

[greenbets]

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1047085 here an explantion to the system

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DOUBLE CHANCE GETAFE WINS OR DRAW
IP
55,63
Delay
7
MP
99,85
HISTORIC HIGH
7

nothing to say about this monitoring, just that can extend until next five matches.
Next opponents are: Sevilla, Barcelona, Eibar, Rayo Vallecano and Villarreal
first three and Villarreal are powerful opponents, so the odds will be fine

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VALENCIA'S OPPONENT SCORES HT: YES
IP
53,78
Delay
7
MP
99,79
HISTORIC HIGH
12

another one from LA LIGA (spanish first division) this time with Valencia's opponent scores half time 1, just to say that it's not going to surpass its historic high record, so make your own calculations..
next opponents are: Malaga, Atletico Madrid, Athletic Bilbao, Levante and Athletico Bilbao again

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VILLARREAL'S OPPONENT SCORES HT2: YES
IP
45,83
Delay
11
MP
99,94
HISTORIC HIGH
11

Villarreal opponent score at least one goal in second half time, its MP is 99,94. for reaching 99.99 can extend till 4 times. so, It's going to fulfill before next five matches. I put it now because I think is going to happens before that
next matches: Celta de vigo, Las Palmas, Bayern Leverkusen, Sevilla and Bayern again.

 

[greenbets]

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BOTH SCORE HT2: NO
NG HALF TIME 2
IP
75,87
Delay
6
MP
99,99
HISTORIC HIGH
6

another pick from french ligue 1 SAINT ETIENNE, NG in second half time, can extend two times, so next two opponents are: Paris Saint Germain and Angers

 

[greenbets]

the picks for stoke city, saint etienne and Valencia green at first time

 

[greenbets]

OVER 3,5​

BASTIA+OPPONENT​

IP​

25,48​

Delay​

24​

MP​

99,94​

HISTORIC HIGH​

24​

French league 1, total goals
Today I’m going to show you a pick that have quite low IP, if you have studied a little bit the Monitoring Probability Strategy you'll know that can extend until MP 99,99.(use the MP Calculator there is in my blog: MPSbets) so to reach that can extend until next 8 matches, but I think is going to fulfill before that...
you can do 2 things: wait until MP is higher, or plan your bankroll to play it for next 8-9 opponents
I have looked odds and for its first match again Lorient is 4.5, in next matches will be also around that.
Next opponents are: Lorient, Nantes, Lille, Bordeaux, Marseille, Toulouse, Saint Etienne and Ajaccio Gfco

BOTH SCORE HT: NO​

NG HALF TIME 1​

IP​

84,41​

Delay​

3​

MP​

99,94​

HISTORIC HIGH​

3​

Another pick for french ligue 1 Guingamp
odds will be awful but whit this IP is going to fullfill before next three matches, this is for playing "live betting" if odds increases.
Next 2 opponents are: Lyon and Saint Etienne

DEPORTIVO CORUÑA WINS​

​

IP​

36,03​

Delay​

13​

MP​

99,81​

HISTORIC HIGH​

14​

Team from La Liga, Deportivo Coruña, on one of the worst streak of its history, According to Monitoring Probability Stratety is going to break in the next 9 matches, but I put it now because I think is not going to last so long.
next opponents: Malaga, Atletico Madrid, Levante, Celta Vigo, Las Palmas, Sevilla, Barcelona, Eibar and Getafe

DOUBLE CHANCE ARSENAL WINS OR DRAW​

​

IP​

77,29​

Delay​

3​

MP​

99,73​

HISTORIC HIGH​

3​

going to fulfill before three matches
next opponents are: Tottenham and Hull city

 

[greenbets]

I have problems posting in this forum, if you want to follow my challenge you can do it in my blog

 

[greenbets]

I have problems posting in this forum, if you want to continue following my challenge visit my blog..